Various population estimates of Robotech

[mech798]

Now the pre-shadow chronicle HG had the population ranging from the 10s of millions to low hundreds. What about HG's? Is it true that they say only about 70K? If so where did Leonard come from?

[Tim Wing]

Oh yeah, it was Leonard that said that.

Maybe it was a slip up caused by the four martini lunch he had with the school commandant before speaking at the graduation. Maybe he meant to say 70,000,000... maybe he was talking about the survivors of the SDF-1... who knows. Regardless, 70,000 survivors is just not realistic. And it doesn't jive with the several population centers we see in the later episodes, each of which looked like small sized cities, with corresponding populations (50,000 plus, each).

Macross puts it 1,000,000, if I remember correctly... then pluses those numbers up with massive amounts of cloning after then war.

I think a population in the tens of millions, at least, would be the most realistic estimate.... but, if we go with this, it runs into confrontation with all quotable sources.

[jedi078]

The biggest issue population wise I have with Robotech is where/how did the UEEF get all the troops they sent back to Earth. The obvious answer is of course off world colonies. But you need people to have colonies and 70,000 people isn't much of a population base.

So in my universe the Rain of Death only wiped out 30% of the worlds population because four of the six grand cannons (Located in Alaska, Siberia, North Africa, and South Africa) were operational and wiped out a good chunk of the Zent fleet. The Zent counter bombardment was of course centered on these sites with military bases then population centers identified as secondary targets. Furthermore once the various governments knew that Earth could possible be attacked from space after the Battle of Macross Island. So in the end the Rain of Death wasn't as bad as what we saw in the show.

[Tim Wing]

I think a 70% survival rate is a little (waaaaay) to high. More-over, its un-needed. Even with a survival rate of just 1%, you would still have a population of 70,000,000... which is still WAY higher than what any of the source material claims. Anyway, I think 70 mil is more than enough to start a reasonable colonization effort.

The best way to approach this, in my opinion, would be to make a guesstimate based on what the minimum population would be in order to reach what the population looked like by the Invid Occupation.

[Seto Kaiba]

Now the pre-shadow chronicle HG had the population ranging from the 10s of millions to low hundreds.

Um... they've never said that. Harmony Gold has not, to date, officially deviated from the statements made in the dialog of the Macross and Masters Sagas, which state that the total number of human survivors of the First Robotech War was a mere 70,000. It's also worth noting that they also maintain that there were ZERO survivors on Earth's surface... and a mere two people (Lisa Hayes and T.R. Edwards) from the depths of the base underneath the Alaskan Grand Cannon.

What about HG's? Is it true that they say only about 70K? If so where did Leonard come from?

It's indicated twice in the series, first by the narrator in the Macross Saga, and is then repeated by Leonard during his speech in the first episode of the Masters Saga.

I wouldn't put too much faith in any one sociologist or population biologist's estimate of how many people you'd need to maintain a functioning society... it's one of those topics where no two scientists seem to be capable of agreeing.

Maybe it was a slip up caused by the four martini lunch he had with the school commandant before speaking at the graduation.

Actually, he's repeating something the narrator said about 9 episodes earlier... so no, it is not an error on Leonard's part.

maybe he was talking about the survivors of the SDF-1... who knows.

He was talking about the survivors from the SDF-1... which the series presents as the only group to survive the devastation. Lisa was the only exception, by dint of having not been on Earth's surface at the time (she was underground to the tune of several miles), and they retconned Edwards into her same position later on, but those two are the only people ever mentioned as survivors who were not on the SDF-1.

Regardless, 70,000 survivors is just not realistic. And it doesn't jive with the several population centers we see in the later episodes, each of which looked like small sized cities, with corresponding populations (50,000 plus, each).

That's your (unfounded) assumption... because no population figures are given for ANY population center until partway into the New Generation. Of course, that sort of runs into issues internally too... since they indicate that New York has a population of only a few thousand people, but in 2044 the UEEF thinks Earth may have a population of a few million. One can at least question the accuracy of the UEEF's information, since nobody got off the planet once the Invid finished occupying it... so their numbers may be wildly off. Quite a few of the drastic overestimations of population are thanks to conclusions reached because of fan-created misinformation regarding the size of ship crews and other data of that type.

Macross puts it 1,000,000, if I remember correctly... then pluses those numbers up with massive amounts of cloning after then war.

They say "approximately" 1,000,000 human survivors... which is mostly thanks to locations that do not exist in Robotech. To be precise, the incomplete Grand Cannon systems west of Lake Victoria (#3, in Africa) and near Sinop, Brazil (#5, in South America), several bases on the moon, the OTEC Manufacturing Station located at Earth-Moon Lagrange 5, and the space colony clusters.

Of course, they do also cheat the numbers up massively using Zentradi cloning technology, and supplement Earth's population with approximately 8,000,000 Zentradi.

Thanks to a mixture of people having MASSIVE families and liberal use of cloning, they've got humanity back up to hundreds of millions by 2060. Max and Milia may have had seven kids (plus one adopted kid), but the winner by a factor of bunnies is none other than Macross assistant flight controller Shammy Milliome... who had ELEVEN children (that we know about).

[jedi078]

I think a 70% survival rate is a little (waaaaay) to high. More-over, its un-needed. Even with a survival rate of just 1%, you would still have a population of 70,000,000... which is still WAY higher than what any of the source material claims. Anyway, I think 70 mil is more than enough to start a reasonable colonization effort.

Civil unrest, famine, and a few million Zents landing on the planet and then occupying portions of it would have probably killed another 20-30% of the population.

The best way to approach this, in my opinion, would be to make a guesstimate based on what the minimum population would be in order to reach what the population looked like by the Invid Occupation.

Why not prior to the Masters arrival? The Second Robotech War would have resulted in a loss of population, especially near the end of the war.

[Jefffar]

While not having a specific basis in the series, the casualty rates from the first edition of the rpg seemed about right to provide the scattered populations we saw in the series and more importantly to provide a diverse environment for roleplay adventure.

The current edition of the RPG stays out of the overt population debate, but the implications of the ASC having to suppress several independent nations in the period between 2015 and 2025 are that the world has a much larger, more scattered and more militarized population than would have grown from a mere 70000 survivors in that period.

[jedi078]

Oh here is another question. How many Zents from the fleet made it to earth in 2009? We know many were micronized. So of these micronized Zents how many of them had children?

...... but the implications of the ASC having to suppress several independent nations in the period between 2015 and 2025 are that the world has a much larger, more scattered and more militarized population than would have grown from a mere 70000 survivors in that period.

I went with the idea that it took until 2028 to completely pacify the Zent Malcontents. Mainly so that when players were creating a background there would be someplace, somewhere where they would be involved in combat operations.

[Seto Kaiba]

[...] and more importantly to provide a diverse environment for roleplay adventure.

Which is, most importantly, the whole point of having a RPG and why almost every franchise considers such licensed games non-canon. For Robotech, liberties had to be taken to provide more diverse options in the setting than what the official story actually offers. In their case, it meant inventing a much larger Earth population and rival nations... even if 1E did succumb to cliche and include the obligatory "evil Russians" of 1980s fiction.

Oh here is another question. How many Zents from the fleet made it to earth in 2009? We know many were micronized. So of these micronized Zents how many of them had children?

No definitive number is ever given... though all things considered it doesn't appear to be anywhere near as many as there were in the original Macross. Remarks made by Macek and Yune, as well as aspects of the story used in the ongoing official continuity strongly suggest that the number of surviving Zentradi who lived on Earth was fairly small, and that most of them ended up as rebels and caught a bad case of dead in Khyron's rebellion. The ones who didn't get killed in the revolt were either wiped out in skirmishes with the UEDF or joined the UEEF and left Earth forever.

There are no known full-blood Zentradi children in the official continuity, and only two hybrids.

Other versions of the Robotech story that aren't bound by the same legal restrictions (comics, novels) tend to be kinder.

[Tim Wing]

but the winner by a factor of bunnies is none other than Macross assistant flight controller Shammy Milliome... who had ELEVEN children (that we know about).

...what a slut.

[Tim Wing]

As much as it pains me to admit it, Seto is right. If we want to stick to the only authoritative source, that being the original series, then the answer is 70,000... which is still totally unrealistic. But I digress.

[jedi078]

Oh here is another question. How many Zents from the fleet made it to earth in 2009? We know many were micronized. So of these micronized Zents how many of them had children?

No definitive number is ever given... though all things considered it doesn't appear to be anywhere near as many as there were in the original Macross. Remarks made by Macek and Yune, as well as aspects of the story used in the ongoing official continuity strongly suggest that the number of surviving Zentradi who lived on Earth was fairly small, and that most of them ended up as rebels and caught a bad case of dead in Khyron's rebellion. The ones who didn't get killed in the revolt were either wiped out in skirmishes with the UEDF or joined the UEEF and left Earth forever.

There are no known full-blood Zentradi children in the official continuity, and only two hybrids.

Other versions of the Robotech story that aren't bound by the same legal restrictions (comics, novels) tend to be kinder.

Since we happen to be in an RPG forum I think we can ignore the official continuity (which is all screwed up anyways) because the New Generation Source book does state how to roll attributes for human/Zent and Human/Tirolean hybrids.

As much as it pains me to admit it, Seto is right. If we want to stick to the only authoritative source, that being the original series, then the answer is 70,000... which is still totally unrealistic. But I digress.

If a particular figure/fact isn't realistic then ignore it, and ignore the naysayers out there.

[mech798]

but the winner by a factor of bunnies is none other than Macross assistant flight controller Shammy Milliome... who had ELEVEN children (that we know about).

...what a slut.

Not really--that's actually in line for female pregancy's before birth control became a thing-- the primary difference not being an utterly obscene death rate among both mothers and children. Presuming Shammy had those kids over 20 years, it's right in line for pregnancy's among Puritan women.

And it's positively realistic given that there are so few people-- children aren't just a resource, they're a vital resource, both morally and physically. Notice the society we see in Shadow Chronicles comapred to that in Macross Frontier. The one is the end route of declaring that you're going to move to a military dictatorship and essentially eat all your seed corn by stuffing everyone in fighters and a society that decided to avoid becoming a pale imitation of the zentraedi.

There's also the fact that A. in this era women have a wide range of productive jobs available that don't require heavy physical labor, and B. You likely see creche style and group family structures rising.

[mech798]

I wouldn't put too much faith in any one sociologist or population biologist's estimate of how many people you'd need to maintain a functioning society... it's one of those topics where no two scientists seem to be capable of agreeing.

here I can speak from knowledge, at least kicking it around with people who have done this a lot as part of their day job. The debates on a functioning modern society do exist, but they tend to focus on how many millions of people you need. 70 K, especially when you remove non-productive individuals (Minmay's family is a good example) wouldn't even be enough to maintain a small factory. As an example, an aircraft carrier requires, tens of thousands of people to build-- not counting the outsourcing of compponents. If you track everyone who builds parts for the carrier or the carriers fighters, or who trains/feeds/suppots those who do, you're talking probably not far under a million-- and that million also need support from other individuals.

maybe he was talking about the survivors of the SDF-1... who knows.

He was talking about the survivors from the SDF-1... which the series presents as the only group to survive the devastation. Lisa was the only exception, by dint of having not been on Earth's surface at the time (she was underground to the tune of several miles), and they retconned Edwards into her same position later on, but those two are the only people ever mentioned as survivors who were not on the SDF-1.

the problem with that (beyond the fact that the Narrator should have died in a fire, since I can't think of one. single. instance. where it provided any information. Sadly another example of the 1980s, "kids are stupid". ) is that we see the Amazon. Jungles are not robust environments as we're finding out. If the earth had been bombarded so heavily as to wipe out everyone, there wouldn't be an Amazon-- heck there wouldn't be much but lichen. But the Amazon survived-- survifed and prospered, and the Amazonian region had a population of well over 7 million... in 1960. By the 1980s that population had dramatically surged, but even if we assume no massive increase or say keep it to 15 million by the rain of death, that's a lot of people in a zone that wasn't heavily hit-- could not have been heavily hit as the survival of the jungle shows.

Regardless, 70,000 survivors is just not realistic. And it doesn't jive with the several population centers we see in the later episodes, each of which looked like small sized cities, with corresponding populations (50,000 plus, each).

That's your (unfounded) assumption... because no population figures are given for ANY population center until partway into the New Generation. Of course, that sort of runs into issues internally too... since they indicate that New York has a population of only a few thousand people, but in 2044 the UEEF thinks Earth may have a population of a few million. One can at least question the accuracy of the UEEF's information, since nobody got off the planet once the Invid finished occupying it... so their numbers may be wildly off. Quite a few of the drastic overestimations of population are thanks to conclusions reached because of fan-created misinformation regarding the size of ship crews and other data of that type.

the big problem is that either A. New york survived, in which case likely there were many survivors or B. there were enough survivors to justify rebuilding New York-- as it had been before the rain. I personally think it survived simply because even presuming there were enough people there woudl be no reason to duplicate the city and a lot of reasons not to. Then there was Rooks hometown, which while ruined looked to be a post Rain city.

Then there was Denver which was specifically called out as a large city. It had a number of multi-story buildings and what were obviously civilian style stores*. Not to mention someone had enough time and population to sink a shaft deep enough to run the place off of geothermal.

*that's another factor-- the prevelence of a civilian sector with stores, singers, etc. 70K survivors doesn't have Minmay running around giving concerns with Kyle, it has Kyle being grabbed and put somewhere he can do more good and Minmay doing what the military tells her to-- there's no need for mayors like we saw when Khyron grabbed the sizing chamber or for that matter big auditoriums. Note that the auditorium we were shown was large enough to hold, if we assume 70K survivors a good chunk of the entire population of the planet.

The problem is that we're really left with a situation where canon, as HG defined it, makes absolutely no sense in any way, material, cultural or governmental. By trying to declare that it was only 70K plus 2, they're really put themselves into a corner, especially since the desire to completely cut off robotech from the Macross era has largely made it impossible to make use of the same tools Macross made use of (where we can justify the jungle as part of a massive attempt to restore the earth's ecology, something we see hinted at in later iterations).

[Seto Kaiba]

Since we happen to be in an RPG forum I think we can ignore the official continuity (which is all screwed up anyways) because the New Generation Source book does state how to roll attributes for human/Zent and Human/Tirolean hybrids.

I don't know why I have to keep reminding people of this, because it IS part of the forum rules... but as far as the people who own and operate this forum are concerned (and have made their opinion known), what's said in the source material is every bit as valid and welcome here as what's said in the RPG. So, to be very frank... there's no reason to ignore the official continuity, not only because Palladium says that the info the series and OSM put forward is equally valid, but because the official continuity's line is an important part of the OP's inquiry.

So if you have an issue with that, please respect the board rules and keep it to yourself.

here I can speak from knowledge, at least kicking it around with people who have done this a lot as part of their day job.

I don't doubt you for a second, but I take those kinds of proclamations with a grain of salt because it's often the subject of considerable debate among experts... often with no two experts in full agreement on just how many people you need to maintain a functioning society or even a viable gene pool. The existence of rather independent, self-sufficient machines for manufacturing is also going to skew the numbers vs. what may be true for the real world today.

the problem with that (beyond the fact that the Narrator should have died in a fire, since I can't think of one. single. instance. where it provided any information. Sadly another example of the 1980s, "kids are stupid". ) is that we see the Amazon.

We see a relatively small area of what we're told is the Amazon... but more importantly, we have to give the series a little leeway for being not entirely scientifically accurate. After all, we are talking about a series that happens to feature such unrealistic things as giant fighting robots powered by magic flowers and the planet's entire ecology recovering from an extinction event that makes Krakatoa look like a squeaky fart.

(It's worth noting that in the original, that forest area was part of a cloning-produced ecological recovery area.)

the big problem is that either A. New york survived, in which case likely there were many survivors or B. there were enough survivors to justify rebuilding New York-- as it had been before the rain.

There's a third possibility... New York could've been partially destroyed and the survivors killed off by various factors relating to the bombardment like heat, radiation, or dust storms, or simply starved to death without a supply of food from outside... and the ruins were resettled after the Invid occupation.

There are explanations out there that don't require us to overturn the existing statements in the series.

Then there was Denver which was specifically called out as a large city. It had a number of multi-story buildings and what were obviously civilian style stores*. Not to mention someone had enough time and population to sink a shaft deep enough to run the place off of geothermal.

In keeping with some of Harmony Gold's remarks on the rebuilding era voiced on Robotech.com, considering it's been domed over it almost certainly is not the original Denver... but rather one of the rebuilt cities they'd mentioned that were "sealed off" to avoid radiation contamination. Exactly how large the city is, we're never really shown.

there's no need for mayors like we saw when Khyron grabbed the sizing chamber or for that matter big auditoriums. Note that the auditorium we were shown was large enough to hold, if we assume 70K survivors a good chunk of the entire population of the planet.

You need some kind of head of local government, and there's a fair amount of indication they were building for the future... so really, it's not unexpected even with the population they had.

Just for shiggles, here's an example. The Allstate Arena, formerly known as the Rosemont Horizon, found in Rosemont, IL is a big 18,500 seat stadium in a tiny little village of 4,202 people. That's four and a half seats for every man, woman, and child in town.

By trying to declare that it was only 70K plus 2, they're really put themselves into a corner, especially since the desire to completely cut off robotech from the Macross era has largely made it impossible to make use of the same tools Macross made use of (where we can justify the jungle as part of a massive attempt to restore the earth's ecology, something we see hinted at in later iterations).

They're not really TRYING to declare anything... they're trying to make lemonade with the big ol' pile of lemons that the Robotech rewriting/ADR crew left them with in their haste to get a show ready to air ASAP. This is just one of many glaring and significant inconsistencies they're trying to either not acknowledge exist or handwave away. Protoculture is another.

[mech798]

Personally this has made me in my private writing (as well as some of my fiction writing), respect the rule that "unless it's *really* germane to the story you want to try to avoid nailing it down if you don't have to. This whole issue stems from flat out stating that the earth had only 70ish K survivors. Had they even gone with "very few survived the zentradi bombardment" the issue never would have even come up, since when considering a population of 6+billion, very few could range from thousands to a hundred million or more.

[Seto Kaiba]

Personally this has made me in my private writing (as well as some of my fiction writing), respect the rule that "unless it's *really* germane to the story you want to try to avoid nailing it down if you don't have to.

We have to cut them a little slack in that they didn't have what you'd call a good-quality translation of any of the three shows they were adapting, and that they were writing this stuff on a schedule so tight they actually claim to have been catching what sleep they could in the hallway outside the studio they were recording ADR tracks in.

This was not something they had the luxury of planning out way ahead of production... Robotech is a story that was literally made up on the fly, with no time to plan or even check between episodes that were being written at the same time to ensure there was inter-episode consistency.

As tight as the timeframe was, it's a miracle the show stands up under even cursory scrutiny. Like I've said many times before, if consistency is your desire, Robotech is the wrong place to seek it.

This whole issue stems from flat out stating that the earth had only 70ish K survivors. Had they even gone with "very few survived the zentradi bombardment" the issue never would have even come up, since when considering a population of 6+billion, very few could range from thousands to a hundred million or more.

Eh... it wouldn't have stopped people from arguing over it, it'd just be a bitter argument over how many was "very few". Hindsight is, as they say, 20-20.

[jedi078]

Since we happen to be in an RPG forum I think we can ignore the official continuity (which is all screwed up anyways) because the New Generation Source book does state how to roll attributes for human/Zent and Human/Tirolean hybrids.

I don't know why I have to keep reminding people of this, because it IS part of the forum rules... but as far as the people who own and operate this forum are concerned (and have made their opinion known), what's said in the source material is every bit as valid and welcome here as what's said in the RPG. So, to be very frank... there's no reason to ignore the official continuity, not only because Palladium says that the info the series and OSM put forward is equally valid, but because the official continuity's line is an important part of the OP's inquiry.

So if you have an issue with that, please respect the board rules and keep it to yourself.

Since your not a moderator it isn't you 'job' to remind anyone of how they should be posting or what the rules of the forum are.

Anyhow since we all know the official continuity is chock full of errors and inconsistencies because we are dealing with three separate shows which were rolled into one big story. A lot of the questions posed here on the forums are meant to ask how people deal with such errors and inconsistencies in their own distinct way.

Personally this has made me in my private writing (as well as some of my fiction writing), respect the rule that "unless it's *really* germane to the story you want to try to avoid nailing it down if you don't have to. This whole issue stems from flat out stating that the earth had only 70ish K survivors. Had they even gone with "very few survived the zentradi bombardment" the issue never would have even come up, since when considering a population of 6+billion, very few could range from thousands to a hundred million or more.

Yes, it would have been nice if the total number of survivors was left as a vague number. As Jeffar has pointed out I do like the fact that the 2nd Edition RPG has avoided the population debate which kinda implies that a GM is free to make the number as high or as low as he/she wishes.

[Jefffar]

Conflicts and Inconsistencies between the RPG material and the Original Source Material (OSM): Yes they do exist and Palladium Books is aware of them. Please don't argue as to which set of statistics is right or wrong, they are both valid. It is okay to point out the differences between the RPG and the OSM, but don't turn this into an issue. It is up to each individual Game Master and Player to determine which figures work best for their game.

[Seto Kaiba]

Anyhow since we all know the official continuity is chock full of errors and inconsistencies because we are dealing with three separate shows which were rolled into one big story.

True, but the RPG is no different in that respect... the only appreciable difference being where the errors and inconsistencies occur. Sometimes they're the same errors and inconsistencies, just magnified or thrown into sharper relief.

A lot of the questions posed here on the forums are meant to ask how people deal with such errors and inconsistencies in their own distinct way.

This is also true, but not for this specific thread. The OP's topic post is specific to the Harmony Gold official continuity. There's no reason to discount what the series says when answering an inquiry specific to what's said in the series.

[ShadowLogan]

As much as it pains me to admit it, Seto is right. If we want to stick to the only authoritative source, that being the original series, then the answer is 70,000... which is still totally unrealistic. But I digress.

Except TSC is regarded as part of said series and they establish the population on Earth is still in the millions in 2044. For the population to get that big from 70k people in that time frame would require a huge population growth spurt larger than any in recoreded history, and that doesn't consider losses due to war, occupation, and those going off to space during the period.

The series does establish that NYC avoided destruction so it is possible that there are people who escaped the devestation, but aren't considered part of the survivor count. That is arguably the simplist approach to shore up the available population without invalidating the dialogue by using groups that aren't considered survivors because they did not take part in the event.

There are no known full-blood Zentradi children in the official continuity, and only two hybrids.

3 or 4 actually.

Dana does mention she has a brother to Zor Prime. Yet to meet him, but since she doesn't qualify it like step or half, he could be a hybrid.

Another POSSIBLE case is the vision "daughter", IF it is in fact a real character AND IF IT IS NOT Mia. This particular one is more murky in the 85ep continuity.

But the Amazon survived-- survifed and prospered

Well we are told the Amazon regenerated, by what means it isn't clear (PC contamination?). It is also clear that Earth's ecology was also recovering outside of planned zones.

In keeping with some of Harmony Gold's remarks on the rebuilding era voiced on Robotech.com, considering it's been domed over it almost certainly is not the original Denver... but rather one of the rebuilt cities they'd mentioned that were "sealed off" to avoid radiation contamination. Exactly how large the city is, we're never really shown.

Narrator establishes that it is Denver Colorado. Though it likely is rebuilt.

They're not really TRYING to declare anything... they're trying to make lemonade with the big ol' pile of lemons that the Robotech rewriting/ADR crew left them with in their haste to get a show ready to air ASAP. This is just one of many glaring and significant inconsistencies they're trying to either not acknowledge exist or handwave away. Protoculture is another.

In a way they are trying to declare it though. Yet they do have options to increase the population of survivors w/o invalidating what the 85ep production crew left them with.

[Seto Kaiba]

Except TSC is regarded as part of said series and they establish the population on Earth is still in the millions in 2044.

Yes, they do say that... but you have to remember the circumstances. Leonard could speak with authority about the number of survivors because he is not just the top man in the military on Earth, he's also pretty much the military governor of Earth and a key figure in the rebuilding of the military and establishment of what passes for peace. The people who say "millions" have never been to Earth, and have had no contact with the forces on Earth except for shortly before the third attack was launched. They probably don't have any actual way of knowing Earth's population.

EDIT: A thought occurs... they say "millions of people", not "millions of humans". It's possible they could have been counting Tirolians who'd been stranded on Earth at the end of the previous war, who would have almost certainly been exterminated by the Invid.

The series does establish that NYC avoided destruction [...]

No it doesn't... it establishes that a city named New York City still exists, and that there are a few thousand people living in its ruins. That last part, coupled with the fact that the city is... well... ruins argues for the city being destroyed. Not ANNIHILATED, but destroyed.

There are no known full-blood Zentradi children in the official continuity, and only two hybrids.

3 or 4 actually.

Dana does mention she has a brother to Zor Prime. Yet to meet him, but since she doesn't qualify it like step or half, he could be a hybrid.

Officially, Dana doesn't have a brother though... just a sister. I suppose it's possible she was unaware of her sibling's gender...

Another POSSIBLE case is the vision "daughter", IF it is in fact a real character AND IF IT IS NOT Mia. This particular one is more murky in the 85ep continuity.

As far as Tommy has given any indication, the hallucinated person the novels call Aurora does not exist.

Narrator establishes that it is Denver Colorado. Though it likely is rebuilt.

Doesn't mean it's the same Denver we have today... what with the annihilation-of-Earth's-surface thing and Harmony Gold's remarks about the few reestablished cities being domed over.

In a way they are trying to declare it though. Yet they do have options to increase the population of survivors w/o invalidating what the 85ep production crew left them with.

Not really... they're just sort of ignoring it and hoping the problem goes away.

[Tim Wing]

Except TSC is regarded as part of said series and they establish the population on Earth is still in the millions in 2044. For the population to get that big from 70k people in that time frame would require a huge population growth spurt larger than any in recoreded history, and that doesn't consider losses due to war, occupation, and those going off to space during the period.

Assuming a population of 2,000,000 (which would be the bare minimum to qualify as a population in the millions) and two generations of reproduction since the rain of death, and a generous rate of reproduction of ten children per couple, we would get: ((2,000,000 / 10) x 2) / 10) x 2 = 80,000.

So the 70,000 is "possible"... but still really really really unlikely in my opinion.

In my timeline, I kinda gloss over the actual number... I acknowledge the 70,000 for the TV series, as well as the 1,000,000 number from Macross... go on to state that some estimates are as high as 10,000,000, but are unlikely. So, yeah, dance mother f***er, dance! lol.

[ShadowLogan]

Yes, they do say that... but you have to remember the circumstances. Leonard could speak with authority about the number of survivors because he is not just the top man in the military on Earth, he's also pretty much the military governor of Earth and a key figure in the rebuilding of the military and establishment of what passes for peace. The people who say "millions" have never been to Earth, and have had no contact with the forces on Earth except for shortly before the third attack was launched. They probably don't have any actual way of knowing Earth's population.

Leonard is also making a political speech, not a historical lesson though so it is possible that he isn't being completely historically accurate.

As for the spacers. While we can't really answer the question how that number is arrived at, it still exists.

No it doesn't... it establishes that a city named New York City still exists, and that there are a few thousand people living in its ruins. That last part, coupled with the fact that the city is... well... ruins argues for the city being destroyed. Not ANNIHILATED, but destroyed.

Yes it does establish that NYC avoided destruction. Major landmarks are still present (Empire State Building, Statue of Liberty, Carnige Hall). That the city is in ruins in 2044 is noted, but that could be more from the Invid than the Zentraedi since there isn't much reason to rebuild places like the ESB.

Officially, Dana doesn't have a brother though... just a sister. I suppose it's possible she was unaware of her sibling's gender...

Actually she does. Its in the dialogue.

Doesn't mean it's the same Denver we have today... what with the annihilation-of-Earth's-surface thing and Harmony Gold's remarks about the few reestablished cities being domed over.

Location wise it would have to be the Denver we have in 1985. That is what the dialogue establishes. That it could be a "new" Denver as far as construction goes I do not dispute, but the location is said to be "Denver Colorado", so that means its in the same location or close enough no one is likely to squabble over the specifics.

Not really... they're just sort of ignoring it and hoping the problem goes away.

It isn't going to go away though without some direct involvement from them. Granted I suspect given the variety of responses to addressing issues it won't go down well either.

Assuming a population of 2,000,000 (which would be the bare minimum to qualify as a population in the millions) and two generations of reproduction since the rain of death, and a generous rate of reproduction of ten children per couple, we would get: ((2,000,000 / 10) x 2) / 10) x 2 = 80,000.

Population growth though isn't determined that way though. You are also failing to consider the population who went out into space with the UEEF and possibly the colonists.

[Seto Kaiba]

Leonard is also making a political speech, not a historical lesson though so it is possible that he isn't being completely historically accurate.

Except that the information in his speech is corroborated elsewhere... or rather, Leonard's speech happens to be corroborating something said earlier in the series.

Yes it does establish that NYC avoided destruction. Major landmarks are still present (Empire State Building, Statue of Liberty, Carnige Hall).

Yeah, because they totally didn't rebuild the same damn Chinese restaurant three or four times... or go to the trouble of recreating an entire goddamn town inside a giant starship, and then AGAIN after they crashed that giant starship again.

Landmarks prove NOTHING.

Officially, Dana doesn't have a brother though... just a sister. I suppose it's possible she was unaware of her sibling's gender...

Actually she does. Its in the dialogue.

... and yet she doesn't, in the continuity. Harmony Gold struck Aurora from the continuity, and no brother has been shown or mentioned but for that odd allusion to a nonexistent person (unless she meant Bowie?)

[ShadowLogan]

Except that the information in his speech is corroborated elsewhere... or rather, Leonard's speech happens to be corroborating something said earlier in the series.

Not exactly. The narrator uses the same terms, however both I think leave room for people to exist if they aren’t technically considered “survivors”.

Yeah, because they totally didn't rebuild the same damn Chinese restaurant three or four times... or go to the trouble of recreating an entire goddamn town inside a giant starship, and then AGAIN after they crashed that giant starship again.

Landmarks prove NOTHING.

That’s all on the SDF-1 though, where it resulted in a practical structure.

We’re talking a settlement a considerable distance away that they are rebuilding, and structures that have no apparent use being rebuilt for a population that supposedly doesn’t exist. That makes even less sense as there is nothing practical about it. It doesn’t even work as a “make work” type project as there likely are a lot of more practical “make work” projects they could be engaging in.

.. and yet she doesn't, in the continuity. Harmony Gold struck Aurora from the continuity, and no brother has been shown or mentioned but for that odd allusion to a nonexistent person (unless she meant Bowie?)

Aurora is one of those issues I’m not willing to debate as we are inside Dana’s mind, just like we get into Zor Prime’s, Rand’s, and Rick’s. So how ‘real’ things actually are is going to be highly subjective to each person.

I agree the brother statement has no follow up, but there isn’t much to go on. It can’t be Bowie though due to the specifics of the quote/scene (which I don’t have handy).

[Jefffar]

In regards to the UEEF and the millions figure, even if it was out of date, it would have still probably been accurate based on when they left. So either the population boomed to 'millions' by the 2020s and then crashed in some unmentioned catastrophe or the 70000 number Leonard uses is not representative of the total population of earth.

[glitterboy2098]

if your going to rebuild new york, i can see rebuilding the statue of liberty, or the world trade center, or empire state.

but why the heck would you rebuild Queens and the Bronx, to their original slum status no less? why would you rebuild the New Jersey section?

hell, why would you build an entire city with housing for 8 million people when all you have is 70,000.. and most of those are living in Monument?

for that matter, how do you explain all the refugee's living out in the ruins? monument and new macross are comfortable and organized, well fed. the is no reason anyone would leave all that to huddle in ruins to starve. that part of the macross saga only makes sense if those are the original inhabitants of those ruined cities, who came out of shelters after the attack.

after all, in the macross OSM that is exactly what those are.. and robotech has the exact same footage..

[Seto Kaiba]

if your going to rebuild new york, i can see rebuilding the statue of liberty, or the world trade center, or empire state.

but why the heck would you rebuild Queens and the Bronx, to their original slum status no less? why would you rebuild the New Jersey section?

That, IMO, is reason to lean more towards the "these are the ruins of pre-first war NYC that lost its entire population in the bombardment, and squatters have taken over after the Invid showed up".

after all, in the macross OSM that is exactly what those are.. and robotech has the exact same footage..

Actually, there weren't really any surviving cities intact enough to inhabit in Macross... every city seen after the bombardment is new. The MOSPEADA setting, however... you'd be spot on.

[mech798]

after all, in the macross OSM that is exactly what those are.. and robotech has the exact same footage..

Actually, there weren't really any surviving cities intact enough to inhabit in Macross... every city seen after the bombardment is new. The MOSPEADA setting, however... you'd be spot on.

Macross plus is a good example-- during the last big dogfight you see a lot of scenes of the earth and outside of the reclamation zone's it's completely barren. given that this is about 28 years after the bombardment, it's plain that the earth had been rendered nearly totally lifeless, with exceptions such as the Amazon, which remain as very odd.

Also, the city they fight in has almost no 'green zone" between it and the wastelands. (which probably also explains why the near-colony worlds have so many people on them, given the fact that most ecologies seem to be compatible, really earth isn't htat attractive a place to live.)

[Jefffar]

after all, in the macross OSM that is exactly what those are.. and robotech has the exact same footage..

Actually, there weren't really any surviving cities intact enough to inhabit in Macross... every city seen after the bombardment is new. The MOSPEADA setting, however... you'd be spot on.

Macross plus is a good example-- during the last big dogfight you see a lot of scenes of the earth and outside of the reclamation zone's it's completely barren. given that this is about 28 years after the bombardment, it's plain that the earth had been rendered nearly totally lifeless, with exceptions such as the Amazon, which remain as very odd.

Also, the city they fight in has almost no 'green zone" between it and the wastelands. (which probably also explains why the near-colony worlds have so many people on them, given the fact that most ecologies seem to be compatible, really earth isn't htat attractive a place to live.)

True, but we have a good idea of whatthe world of Robotech looks like circa 2030 and circa 2045, and while there are wastelands there are also lush forests, thick jungles and multiple settlements (some of which can be described as cities). There is a point of divergence here which can only be explained by a lesser state of planetary devastation or a greater rate of planetary reclamation. Not of those lean in favor of a greater population base.

[Seto Kaiba]

Macross plus is a good example-- during the last big dogfight you see a lot of scenes of the earth and outside of the reclamation zone's it's completely barren.

Yeah, Macross Plus shows us Earth as it is in 2040... and Macross Chronicle indicates that Earth is going to need thousands, if not tens of thousands, of years of managed ecological recovery to be restored to something resembling its pre-war condition. It wouldn't be a stretch to say the planet's only inhabited to maintain its symbolic status as the homeworld of humanity, and out of sheer bloody-minded stubbornness.

By that point, most of the human population of the Sol system lives offworld... either on the various surface colonies like the old Apollo Base colony, Moon Riverside City, or Mars's HG Wells City, or in the various huge "satellite cities" orbiting otherwise-uninhabitable worlds like Henry Beggs satellite city (Venus), Axia Roader satellite city (Earth orbit), the Miranda, White Flora, and Brangogne satellite cities (Jupiter), Reds Wood satellite city (Saturn), and Grande Savoie satellite city (Neptune). That's not counting resource bases on Ceres, Europa, and Ganymede.

Beyond those, most of humanity doesn't even live in the Sol system... there are at least 19 known extrasolar colony worlds already settled (most prominently featured are Eden, Ouroboros, Sephira, Varuata, Veil, and the former Vajra homeworld), plus a couple inhabitable worlds they HAVEN'T settled either due to another sentient species already existing there (Zola) or for other reasons (Eden III, Pukirases, and Lux).

given that this is about 28 years after the bombardment, it's plain that the earth had been rendered nearly totally lifeless, with exceptions such as the Amazon, which remain as very odd. [...]

Actually, that's not specified as the Amazon rainforest in Macross... it's just an ecological recovery zone with an unspecified location. It's almost certainly in Alaska, considering Hikaru and Misa reach it fairly swiftly from Macross City, and we know the city's in Alaska just east of Grand Cannon I (so likely very close to what used to be the Alaska-Yukon border).

True, but we have a good idea of whatthe world of Robotech looks like circa 2030 and circa 2045, and while there are wastelands there are also lush forests, thick jungles and multiple settlements (some of which can be described as cities).

Circa 2030 in Robotech, Earth is, if anything, even more barren than what we saw in 2014. The ONLY significant areas of foliage we see are the ones on top of the three mounds, until the arrival of the 2nd Earth Reclamation Force in 2042, which arrives on an Earth that looks not too different from what we have today... though how much of that reclamation is down to the flowers of life or Invid intervention, we cannot say.

There is a point of divergence here which can only be explained by a lesser state of planetary devastation or a greater rate of planetary reclamation. Not of those lean in favor of a greater population base.

Since the Robotech series itself repeatedly supports the "near-total annihilation" of the planet's surface, a greater rate of planetary reclamation seems indicated by the dramatic change seen between the end of the second Robotech War and the arrival of the 2nd Reclamation Force in the middle of the third.

[Tim Wing]

Circa 2030 in Robotech, Earth is, if anything, even more barren than what we saw in 2014. The ONLY significant areas of foliage we see are the ones on top of the three mounds, until the arrival of the 2nd Earth Reclamation Force in 2042, which arrives on an Earth that looks not too different from what we have today... though how much of that reclamation is down to the flowers of life or Invid intervention, we cannot say.

True, but then again, most of the action in Southern Cross is fairly localized around the Monument City area... so, not much to go.

Since the Robotech series itself repeatedly supports the "near-total annihilation" of the planet's surface, a greater rate of planetary reclamation seems indicated by the dramatic change seen between the end of the second Robotech War and the arrival of the 2nd Reclamation Force in the middle of the third.

I think not. That reclamation would have had to take place in the period between the end of the 2nd Robotech war and the beginning of the Third. So one year for a dramatic change. Not very likely....

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that either A) the attack in Robotech was less massive than in Macross, which means more survivors, or B) planetary recovery was way faster than in Macross, whether it be managed or natural.

[Jefffar]

Just remember, a 99% casualty rate still leaves us with 70 000 000 humans or there abouts. I'd say that qualifies for a near total anhilation but still gives us lots to work with. Even a 99.9% casualty rate leaves us with what the UEEF is justified in later calling 'millions of people'

[Seto Kaiba]

True, but then again, most of the action in Southern Cross is fairly localized around the Monument City area... so, not much to go.

Considering we're told by Harmony Gold in the series and the Infopedia that there are only a handful of settlements on the entire planet... that's probably not accidental, nor the near-total absence of foliage. It's a grim, grim world.

I think not. That reclamation would have had to take place in the period between the end of the 2nd Robotech war and the beginning of the Third. So one year for a dramatic change. Not very likely....

Yet that's what we see... they leave Earth in 2030 and it's a barren wasteland. Come back after ~12 years under the Invid, and we've wandered into Sherwood fecking Forest. I suspect an INVID-MANAGED recovery.

Just remember, a 99% casualty rate still leaves us with 70 000 000 humans or there abouts. I'd say that qualifies for a near total anhilation but still gives us lots to work with. Even a 99.9% casualty rate leaves us with what the UEEF is justified in later calling 'millions of people'

What we're told amounts to a 100% casualty rate among "schlubs unfortunately enough to be on the surface when it went down", and a infinitesimally small survival rate of "schlubs lucky enough to be six kilometers under the surface in the middle of rural nowhere when it went down" thanks an exploding cannon big enough to park a warship in.

[Jefffar]

And yet there are millions of people on earth less than two generations later. The population group we see in that period doesn't seem particularly biased to being young either. Of course the fact that the young are probably more involved in the fighting and the dying offsets the age distribution somewhat.

[glitterboy2098]

if your going to rebuild new york, i can see rebuilding the statue of liberty, or the world trade center, or empire state.

but why the heck would you rebuild Queens and the Bronx, to their original slum status no less? why would you rebuild the New Jersey section?

That, IMO, is reason to lean more towards the "these are the ruins of pre-first war NYC that lost its entire population in the bombardment, and squatters have taken over after the Invid showed up".

the problem with that is the city is in excellent condition. there is no way to lose the population without the city itself being blasted apart. even neutron bombs would level enough of the city to be visible, and the resulting area would be radioactive enough no one could live there 30 years later, which is what we see in new gen.

and with the zent weapons, there is no way to have 8 million people killed that doesn't involved massive destruction of the city.

after all, in the macross OSM that is exactly what those are.. and robotech has the exact same footage..

Actually, there weren't really any surviving cities intact enough to inhabit in Macross... every city seen after the bombardment is new. The MOSPEADA setting, however... you'd be spot on.

i didn't say that the cities were intact. i said people living in the ruins. in macross, both OSm and robotech version, we see people squatting in the rubble of old cities, living off meagre handouts by the new macross city centered government.
we have a whole scene in robotech where kyle and minmei are in the rubble themselves, right after a concert, and kyle is complaining about holding shows in such places and only being paid in what are basically aid packages of food. to which minmei states something to the effect that the people don't have anything else.

why would people choose to squat in the rubble of old cities, living off limited food handouts, when there is new macross city, a city big enough for over 70,000 people and most of them live comfortably? or Monument city, also big enough for tens of thousands of people, where people can live with the basic amenities, if not as comfortably as new macross? or any of the half dozen other places we see that have been rebuilt, all big enough for thousands of people, and with at least basic amenities restored? (admittedly, we see most of these during malcontent zent attacks, so they are easy to forget about)

it doesn't make sense that people would choose to leave a place where they have comforts and steady source of food, water, etc.. to go wear rags, camp out in rubble, and starve. the only explanation for that is that other people survived, probably in underground shelters similar to the kind we see in use early in the show at macross island, and when they came back up after the bombardment, they found their homes in rubble. unable to travel very far, they try to rebuild what they can but they have to be reliant on the new UEG (headed by the SDF-1/new macross in north america, and going by the RPG, leonard and the ASC in south america) for support as they do so.. and in places where the destruction is more total, or where the UEG hasn't been able to direct much effort yet, rebuilding is slow and most still live in the shelters, eating UEG aid shipments.

[Seto Kaiba]

the problem with that is the city is in excellent condition. there is no way to lose the population without the city itself being blasted apart.

Radiation? Dust storms? Starvation? These things don't necessarily involve direct run-ins with explosions. The city's shown to be in pretty rough shape, all told.

i didn't say that the cities were intact. i said people living in the ruins. in macross, both OSm and robotech version, we see people squatting in the rubble of old cities, living off meagre handouts by the new macross city centered government.

Actually, it's not established just what purpose those settlements had... just that, in the years immediately following the bombardment, food distribution was regulated by the government and military.

why would people choose to squat in the rubble of old cities, living off limited food handouts, when there is new macross city, a city big enough for over 70,000 people and most of them live comfortably? or Monument city, also big enough for tens of thousands of people, where people can live with the basic amenities, if not as comfortably as new macross? or any of the half dozen other places we see that have been rebuilt, all big enough for thousands of people, and with at least basic amenities restored?

There must be a reason... but we're not told what it is. Maybe they're securing untainted supplies of water or other vital material resources. Magically unmentioned other survivors are not the only explanation.

[Jefffar]

But they are mentioned, the 'millions of people' would include them.

[mech798]

The biggest problem is that if there are only 70K survivors, there should be NO other settlments. Macross was all that would be needed. That's even more apparent in Southern Cross-- in episode 58 at about 22.06 we get apan of monument city-- and it's huge--huge wth lots of civilians. Then 9 minutes into episode 59, the masters are targeting a large city. WE have the advantage of having some freeways in frame for scale and it's clearly an LA or New York style megopolis. Even if we assume that suburbs are non-existence and thus everyone is living in the city, it's still the sort of center that can hold (and likely does) hold hundreds of thousands of individuals. Also, two cities are mentioned although we only see the one. At 14:30, we see a panicked mob of civilians, including a large traffic jam. Note that the announcer specifically states that it's the denver zone, and that all traffic is stopped and drivers should take shelter. At 16:37 we get another view of a damaged city again with a substantial civilian population.

And these are what's around after the REF left. Then there are the cities and population centers we see after the invid invasion, where se also see at least one city destroyed out right by the invid.

The problem is, there is no way this die off happens with a root population of 70K plus whoever you could give birth to in less than 25 years. If we started from 70K after the REF, the invasion of hte Robotech Masters, Khyron's attacks, the Invid invasion, Scott and Co wouldn't be having problems wtih locals--they'd be trying to *find* someone before they all starved to death.